Over the last many months we have been involved in a short #gold trade. During the time we have been adding to our short positions we have been approached by many students with fears, worries and basically anxiety about whether gold will indeed drop. There were many times that price rallied strongly and formed candles that made price look very bullish and no matter how many times we detailed the reasons why we felt very strongly that price was going to drop, it seemed these explanations were not sufficient enough to trust. As we’ve said many times before, the market tells us what it wants to do, it’s our job to look for that information and decipher it properly. We have done our analysis and we examined a lot of the evidence, and I say a lot because I’m sure there was much more to discover but we are not at the level to discover those at this time, and after our analysis we saw clear reasons why price was going to drop. From the monthly supply we were contacting, to the very aggressive long positions the institutions held, so many things were telling us that it was time to see a reversal. Yet despite these pieces of evidence based on hard facts that existed, many traders were nervous and could not believe the facts because of the “visible” formations the candles where taking, on the charts. This is one of the reasons why traders fail. They are easily guided the wrong way because of something so simplistic as a candle formation. This idea of trusting what candles currently look like has got to be stopped. If you want to be a professional trader you must be able to see the evidence, come to a conclusion and know exactly when your conclusion will be deemed incorrect and until that has been done, you have to stick to your analysis and not waiver.
I want this experience with #gold to teach those who worried a valuable lesson. Learn from this experience and make sure you remember it the next time you start feeling those feelings again because the market will do this to you again, you can bet on that, but you have to remember that you have to deal with facts and not visual and emotional manipulations. After you’ve played this game many times, you will start to realize that the markets will do this, so instead of being manipulated by your emotions, become wiser, let your emotional intelligence grow from this and in the end you’ll become better and stronger on the other side!
Kevin Araujo