Based on the Commitments of Traders data reported on: January 2nd'23
#GOLD is not doing anything right now. The focus does not seem to be on this asset for the time being. It failed to produce a long signal so now we wait for that.
$USDWTI - Daily supply pushed price lower but we also have weekly demand that is keeping price up.
NOTE: Remember what we’ve said with respect to the $USO and the massive supply in play.
$EURUSD Price dropped as we expected because retail traders maxed out their shorts. Then as price dropped they started entering into long positions. On Friday #nfp data came out positive for the us dollar and that seemed to get retail switching back into short positions again. I’ll be watching this week to see if retail will continue adding to their shorts.
(1) Right now price is at the daily trend line so I think there is a good chance price moves lower and breaks it.
(2) Or price can rally to lure in retail shorts and if so we have a 4h supply that could reverse price.
🚨 IMPORTANT: On Friday they came out with positive #dollar data which might trigger retail to get in short – which they started doing on Friday.
$TLT things are becoming more bullish now. Looking good for a continued move higher but first we are getting a retracement which will be good to add to our longs. Shorts are aggressive but likely being used to drop price.
🔎📊 CFTC EXPERT ANALYSIS
🎩 Each week I will highlight a specific pair from the Araujo Report. The analysis will be a potion of what's made available to members.
GOLD: Institutional traders have a NEUTRAL SENTIMENTForce of Price
Overview: Price consolidated on the weekly chart and over the past several weeks we can see the banks increasing their long exposure. They have yet to offload any of those longs as of yet. Shorts on the other hand are at their default position around 80k. I will continue to monitor gold for now but no signals as of yet. We saw a massive rally and then an immediate drop which DID NOT create a monthly or weekly uptrend so no long signals were present. Sentiment is neutral at this point as we switch from bearishness to bullishness. If a long signal is produced, long term positions will be what I will be looking to open. What we can see is the banks used the rally to offload their longs reducing them from the 289’s to the 273’s. Not a massive drop but a drop nonetheless. Interesting how this is playing out after the chart failed to produce a long signal. No MAGIC zones on the chart as of yet.