Updated: Jun 7, 2020
In this journal entry I want to focus on the #cftc data and the reports that are released every Friday. I think some people think its as easy as watching a video within an hour and some special secret will be revealed that will allow you to interpret the #CoT data in a successful way. In fact, like most things in life, it is not that simple. Interpreting the CoT data is one of the most difficult things to do consistantly. The reason for this is that you can not take the results of the data literally, most of the times. Meaning that if the banks have 120k long but 220k short you can’t automatically think it means you should short the market and I think most traders think this way. Interpreting the CoT data requires an ability to anticipate what the banks will do with their positions, just like reading price action. The problem is most traders like indicators that tell you what to do and so they look at the data on the CFTC reports as an indicator. This way of thinking will lead you to very bad results I can assure you of that.
Anticipating what the institutions will do with their positions successfully only comes after many years of examining the data and combining it with their supply and demand in the markets and even then mistakes will happen and you will always be learning something new. The circumstances in the markets are endless and therefore the positions in the markets can change in many different ways to reflect those conditions. The key I have found is to accumulate enough experiences and circumstances in the markets that allow you to have some understanding of how the banks use their positions to accumulate a position, navigate through supply and demand and eventually distribute their positions to the markets and profit in the process. I am constantly learning from my experiences and this webinar I did for members of the mentorship service was a formal introduction to this topic, that to me is so fascinating.
Here's a 20 min clip of that webinar we did, I hope you learn something from it!