The positions below represent the institutional positions held as of November 6th, 2018!
When examining the markets this week I turned to some historical information on the positions held by the institutions as the technical are starting to show signs of institutional reversals about to manifest in a larger way. For instance, when you look at the #audusd a weekly momentum shift demand zone has just been formed, the $eurusd is currently inside a weekly momentum shift demand zone and the #nzdusd has also formed a momentum shift demand zone. So taking this into consideration I spent some time examining the historical figures and have determined that in respect to the many of the majors the positions that have been held over the past few weeks are at levels that have been historically preceded by reversals in price caused by profit taking on the aggressive positions held. The #gbpusd was currently aggressively short, the $audusd was aggressively short, #gold was aggressively short, #oil was aggressively long, #nzdusd was aggressively short and the $usdjpy was aggressively long. Using just these examples we can see that it only makes sense that the institutions would want to start taking profits on their aggressive positions and that is exactly what we see taking place.
Turning to the historical data helps in determining what is likely to take place on the #dollar and the #eurusd as those charts and their data are a lot more complicated. One thing is for sure, examining the historical data is pointing in the direction of seeing the #dollar drop and the #eurusd rally from current levels. The #dollar has a weekly up trend but the $eurusd’s weekly demand has yet to be broken and if a rally is to take place it will have to be from these levels. On the daily chart the euro seemed about to cause a momentum shift upwards but then succumbed to the descending trend line force downwards. It’s do or die time for this pair this week. Should we see a rally and a test of this trend line it’s likely it’ll break but should we see price drop further things will become just a bit more complicated.
This week I’ll be watching for signs of the bigger picture playing out, which again are reversals taking place from profit taking by the institutions.