May 31th 2020 - Institutional 🏦 Positions & Supply/Demand for Gold, Oil and the FOREX market
Based on the Commitments of Traders data reported on: May 26th 2020
📊 In the Markets: We have some dynamics shifting on some of the charts. The #USDCAD for instance has removed an important demand zone on the daily chart and this is coupled with the weekly demand area we’ve been watching. This now opens the path for a move much lower to areas we’ve been interested in taking a long position into our portfolio. We are watching for a move below the 1.35’s and then I’ll instigate a long position once the signal is produced. The current weakness in the #DOLLAR was helpful in producing the drop on the #USDCAD and we know that the current daily demand holding on the #DOLLAR plays a pivotal role in the bigger picture cycle that we had in play, so the question is, will to #DOLLAR continue lower thus producing weakness throughout dollar pairs? Or will the #DOLLAR hold demand and cause a move higher to form? I think a strong argument can be
made for both a move lower and for a move higher. The real magic is “knowing” what will take place is to examine both arguments in detail to come to the conclusion that is the most likely. This is what we’ll be doing in our Level 3 classes!
The #GOLD chart has been a really interesting one. We’ve known for some time now that price was likely going to spend some time at the current highs in order to validate demand formed lower and this is what took place. How did we know this was likely? We studied the dynamics on the charts and we took what we knew to be true and applied it to all the timeframes and came to the conclusion that price would spend time at these highs. With this taking place, new demand has been formed which now lends to the argument for a continued move higher.
#OIL has also done what we expected it to do. We have witnessed a really nice rally from the lows of mid-April to now closing in the mid 30’s. How did we know this rally was going to be produced? Again, we studied the charts and applied what we knew to be true from our past studies and the result was a move higher was expected. We still see more upside coming as price hits into the 40’s.
The #AUDUSD has made its way higher just as we laid out numerous times, and we expect to see more upside coming. The 68’s is the likely turning point for price. We have a little more to push higher before this take place but when it does we’ll be seeing weakness across the board on #AUD pairs.
The #GBPAUD forecast was spot on and we are just shy of our 1.8390 target for price. We are expected a move upwards at any point now.
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