March 25th 2019 - Institutional Positions & Supply and Demand for the FOREX market

The positions below represent the institutional positions held as of March 19th 2019!

📊 In the Markets: It’s that time of the year again when futures contracts expire and the institutions have to get out of one contract and into another and when this takes place we usually will see a displacement of positions and on this occasion, it is no different. In fact we also know that at times the banks will use contract expiration as a means to shift their positions more in line with how they’d like to be positioned based on the direction they want to take price. Taking this into consideration, I examined the data thoroughly and came some conclusions. Just briefly, we can see that on the #usdcad contract expiration has likely been used to create a significantly more bullish net position and we can see this sentiment replicated on a couple other pairs.


Then we have #oil and when you look at the data we can see a massive reduction in short positions. Now we’ve known for some time that the we could expect bullishness to come into this market and push price higher, which is what has been taking place but the question lies if whether the current short positioning is what is the transition number or did they use contract expiration to shift their holding as such? I am leaning more on the side of this being their final positions as it would make complete sense to me based on what I am expecting from price.


The rest of the data remains in line with our expectations from the markets. Our theories are strengthened by the release of this data and to be completely sure we will wait for next week’s set of data to confirm our speculations. Looking at the #nzdusd there may be an indication that the banks are ready for taking price lower from the current highs. This is in line with the #dollar strength we are expecting as well. #audusd weakness we see in that data is also aligned with #gold weakness which again is line with our expectations.


Magic Trader!


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