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🔎📊 Your CFTC Data Analysis - April '24 🚨 Featuring $GBPUSD

Based on the Commitments of Traders data reported on: April 16th'23



#GOLD the monthly chart has produced 2 momentum candles so we are due for a basing candle next month. The weekly chart is already producing the basing so both timeframes have a neutral bias for now. Price could rally or drop after this basing see we need to wait and see how things look on the lower timeframes. Price is too high for me to buy, would like a drop to the monthly magic zone, the trend line would be not too far below it.


$USDWTI  - price dropped from world events.


$TLT there has been a lot of talk recently about rates and what we should expect from them. The Fed says they will start dropping rates this year but there are signs that investors/traders are starting to think maybe there won’t be any. What we do know is this:

1)      Rates on bonds are heading higher… why? Monthly demand is pushing price upwards.


Rates are either going to continue higher, and if that were to happen the 6/12 month supply zones would have to be removed first, or they will hold their supply and start to drop. Where will they start to drop from? I’ll be watching the daily chart for a shift to the downside to take place which could signal the start of a significant drop. Supply has now been contacted so I am watching to see if downside pressure comes in.

 

S&P 500 the institutions just kicked their longs into overdrive. This is a massive move on their positions with longs increasing from 285k to 348k and shorts dropping from 343k to 274k. With banks making a shift to bullishness and price contacting the monthly magic zone, we are bullish the market.



 

🔎📊 CFTC EXPERT ANALYSIS


🎩 Each week I will highlight a specific pair from the Araujo Report. The analysis will be a potion of what's made available to members.


GBPUSD: Institutional traders have a BULLISH SENTIMENT

Interest Rate: 5.25% (last change – August 3rd ‘23)Force of Price

FORCES

Monthly

Ranging

Weekly

Ranging

Overview: Price dropped on the weekly chart and the banks closed out longs from 80k to 71k (profit taking) and shorts increased from 51k to 63k. Recently we wrote “longs are near max size which means they will be taking profits on longs very soon” and this is what they did these last several weeks. They approached the super aggressive positions we have historically seen before big drops in price take place. Recently we wrote “we are also seeing retail starting to become super aggressive with their positioning, example: currently $gbpusd shorts are at 94%. All this spells a major move lower is coming” and the move lower did indeed come. Let’s watch the latest key zones produced on the way up for short signals – they were created and they came into play as expected. Price is much heavier on this chart compared to the $eurusd. Expecting some upside before continuing lower.

📊 Retail are currently 85% long.






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