Based on the Commitments of Traders data reported on: January 21st 2020
📊 In the Markets: There is a lot going on in the markets currently. One thing to point out is the lack of trend structures on the higher timeframes and when there are no trends price can act very unpredictably. When we have these situation we have to stick with what we do know and allow that to ground us and our analysis. What do we know? #Gold is at extreme highs and institutions long positions are at MAX, can they increase their maximum position limitations? Yes they can, does that mean they’ll increase it so much so that price will rally
significantly? When you think about his logically, the answer is clearly that it’s not likely going to happen. If it did, something completely unusual will have to take place that would be outside the norms of how the markets operate. So with that said, the odds are that #gold will drop and it is setting itself up for doing just that.
Let’s now examine the #dollar and what we’ll find is the fact that we currently have institutional demand that is in play and it has been in play since the beginning of the year and what can we see with price? It’s been rallying; in fact it is on the brink of shifting momentum from last year’s downside, to potentially becoming upside. I say potentially because we are waiting for this week’s candle to close. If it does close and provide us the signal, we’ll have a strong argument for a continued move higher and with that, we can safely assume the rest of the market will fall in line with expectations. Watching to see how this unfolds this week but my bias is on the side of a #dollar rally and #gold drop.
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