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January 12th 2020 - Institutional 🏦 Positions & Supply/Demand for Gold, Oil and the FOREX market

Based on the Commitments of Traders data reported on: January 7th 2020

📊 In the Markets: Where do we begin when it comes to this current market situation? We have the #dollar holding its strength while #gold rallied very strong from Middle East tensions and for the #institutions need to lure retail into taking their long positions off their portfolio. We can also see that #institutions are not focused on the #dollar, the #usdchf or even the #usdjpy. What we can see is them needing to take profits on #gold, building a long position on #oil, still heavy on #audusd shorts, building a long on the #gbpusd and the #nzdusd and building a short on the #usdcad.

The building of a short #usdcad and long #oil would make sense but then one has to wonder what will the #dollar do to facilitate a drop on the #usdcad? How will the #usdjpy play out even though it seems very bullish? If we take the evidence we see with respect to the #gbpusd and #nzdusd, they both are implying that a move higher is about to come. With this move higher, what would happen to the #dollar? So you can see there are many discrepancies at this very moment. There’s an argument that can made for both a weaker and stronger dollar over the next couple months. My analysis of the evidence would lean towards a #dollar rally with demand being in play and #gold near record highs with long positions and price sitting inside supply.

We always like to see the markets correlated to some degree because when they are it provides confidence in the evidence clearly suggests a specific move is to be expected but in the current market dynamics, there leaves many question that need to be answered before that confidence can be re-established.

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