As we enter mid February we are starting to see the institutions prepare for the next move they have planned. During this phase it has become very apparent how long it takes for them to position themselves before larger moves and it seems its all due to how many retail traders they can lure into taking the opposite side of their trades and we all know the responsibility of a market maker and how they have to sell when retail want to buy and they have to buy when retail wants to sell... how convenient!
GOLD ~ We've been watching gold for some time now and we have been watching the positioning of the banks and have anticipated all the maneuvers they have made with price. Currently price has rallied up into institutional supply and we are expecting to see signs of them selling to the retail traders who are buying. On the latest Araujo Report I detailed how the latest batch of data that was released to us made it clear that selling was indeed taking place exactly when their supply was contacted. We are a few weeks behind in the data from the #CFTC but we anticipate seeing more selling in the data to come.
DOLLAR ~ The dollar is now in a situation where it is between massive supply and demand. Currently the force of the supply is in play and causing price to decline. What I am watching for at this time is to see if the banks will take out their weekly demand or supply zone and based on evidence gathered from some of the other pairs, it's likely the supply will be removed. The only key information the #CoT data provides us is that the banks are aggressively long and still have room to add to their positions so this lends to the move upwards we're expecting.
OIL ~ This chart has been taking it's time here at these lows and the reason for this is because of the current phase that price is in. For a very long time now we have been tracking institutional buying on oil and we located the exact spot we knew they would start taking profits on their longs. Since the drop from that supply area, we can see that the banks reduced their long positions from highs of 750k to now 498k and what we are expecting to take place is a move higher to allow them to reduce their longs further and continue to slowly add to their growing short positions for what is to come!
Be safe and prepared out there traders!