Based on the Commitments of Traders data reported on: April 16th'23
#GOLD the second monthly momentum candle didn’t look as good as we would want it to be because of the massive wick to the upside but nonetheless we now have price basing at the highs. Since we are expecting the $eurusd to drop, naturally we would suspect that Gold will follow. We will continue to monitor this chart and update you.
$USDWTI - price continues to decline since the attack on Iran. Chart shows there is nothing to stop price from falling.
$TLT there has been a lot of talk recently about rates and what we should expect from them. The Fed says they will start dropping rates this year but there are signs that investors/traders are starting to think maybe there won’t be any. What we do know is this:
1) On the daily timeframe momentum has started to shift to the downside.
Rates are either going to continue higher, and if that were to happen the 6/12 month supply zones would have to be removed first, or they will hold their supply and start to drop.
Bonds ($TLT) so far are starting to look good. Nice move higher here off the monthly demand zone. Watching for a break to the upside on the daily chart for long signal.
S&P 500 monthly chart is bullish with the monthly demand in play. The odds are that this demand will provide for a much longer term move upwards. For increase in odds the weekly supply needs to be removed first.
🔎📊 CFTC EXPERT ANALYSIS
🎩 Each week I will highlight a specific pair from the Araujo Report. The analysis will be a potion of what's made available to members.
AUDUSD: Institutional traders have a BEARISH SENTIMENTInterest Rate: 4.35% (last change – Feb 5th 2023)Force of Price
FORCES | Monthly | Ranging | Weekly | Ranging |
Overview: Price rallied upwards and the banks decreased their longs from 43k to 41k and shorts also decreased for the second straight week from 139k to 124k. Recently we wrote “banks will likely start closing off shorts and this will cause a rally in price” and this is exactly what took place. We now have smaller timeframe supply in play and so we saw a drop in price this past week. With the $eurusd setting up for a likely drop, I would suspect that we’ll start to see this momentum to the upside come to an end and price turn over to the downside for a more medium term move.
