December 11, 2018 - Institutional Positions & Supply and Demand for the FOREX market
The positions below represent the institutional positions held as of December 4th, 2018!
This week’s report comes a bit later as it release on Friday was made on Monday after the death of George H.W. Bush. After examining all the data I have found that the consensus remains as it has the last many weeks. There is a new piece to this puzzle that must be noted, on both the #audusd and the #nzdusd price is reacting from significant areas that could likely be the cause of a reversal in price and a considerable move lower taking place. On the $audusd it is difficult to read as it may be a monthly force coming into play as I have laid out here and with the $nzdusd it is a monthly 20ema in a monthly down trend , so we cannot ignore this.
When examining #gold we can see the momentum is building to the upside as the weekly supply was removed. Weekly trend is also up so this information builds strength for the #dollar weakness thesis. Then we take a look at the #gbpusd and after some closer examination I have noticed that the monthly demand we were sitting in is not demand and thus makes a move lower a lot more likely over time. When putting all the pieces together we can see the beginning of a new thesis forming. Are we about to see a shift in the market dynamics? Is the $eurusd going to drop sooner rather than later? This is becoming something that we must seriously consider as we begin to see the relevant evidence to support this emerge.
Leading into Christmas I believe this will become a lot clearer as to what the institutions have planned. What I can tell you is that recently I have also discovered that with #gold, the last 5 Christmas seasons we saw price rally. This is a considerable piece of information and when combined with the fact we know they have been profit taking on shorts and now adding considerable longs to their portfolio’s, this makes it very possible to see a continuation higher in the weeks to come.
Be safe out there!