Welcome back everyone, finally we got the #CFTC data all updated. It took them some time to get caught up but we are indeed caught up now. So what did we miss while they were trying to get all the data confirmed? Well in todays report I have done some extensive analysis on all the pairs and broke down what the banks have been up to in some detail.
In general, we are watching for a move higher in #Gold as we’ve seen them increasing their long positions but still they have not created any solid ascending trends at this point. We are also watching #Oil and we witnessed the banks take profits on their long held long positions. They recently being focused on adding short positions but if what my analysis is telling me is correct, I see #oil heading upwards for a sustained movement very soon. This takes us into a topic we recently did a full classroom session on, Intermarket Analysis. It’s been said that there is an inverse relationship with the dollar and commodities and certainly we have found this to be true many time, but not all the time. Recently there has been a positive correlation between the two but it looks like it is ready to drop into negative territory soon. If that is the case, we should expect the dollar to drop at some point and for #Oil to head higher.
USD vs Oil
Since we have #Oil contacting demand on the higher timeframe very soon and the dollar seems to be setting up for a drop it is not out of the question that we will see the moving opposite one another.
We also have the inverse relationship between the #dollar and #Gold and with #Gold rally upwards and the ascending trends in place on the higher timeframes, this also builds the strength in a move lower on the #dollar.
Gold vs USD
With all that being said, the timing of all these moves is what will be difficult to establish as again, there are no trends in play and most don’t even have significant zones in play as well. I’ll be monitoring the markets moving forward and waiting for the signals.