The markets have been in a resting period, at least on the charts thats how it looks but upon closer examination it becomes evident that there is a lot more to the story, especially when we examine the #eurusd!
This journal entry is an example of how I delve deeper into the market to extract information about how these markets move, what makes them do what they do and discover the internal workings of something we are told there are no explanations for.
$EURUSD ~ Looking at this pair we can see that for a period of five months price has been consolidating. You can see it very clearly on the monthly chart. During the time that price has been ranging a couple things have taken place that provides us evidence to what is likely coming.
FIRST - Price on the monthly chart responded to some strong resistance when it reacted from the 1.12 area, thus a monthly force began to push price upwards.
This force was so powerful it took out a weekly supply zone we had mapped out.
After price broke free from the weekly structure it rallied until a daily supply was hit and then that caused price to correct itself on the weekly chart, meaning it put price back on the path to form a weekly descending structure again.
So let's examine how it did that.... Price dropped from the daily supply and right through the weekly demand zone that had been formed and a new weekly supply zone created by the institutions was born. After the weekly supply was created it was used to help facilitate a move lower as it played a role in solidifying the weekly descending structure.
SECOND - During this five month phase of consolidation upon examination of the #CoT data we can see that the non-commercials were able to build net positions from -37,019 to a massive -80,278 in bearish positions.
This provides us with solid evidence that what is taking place here is that the institutions are getting themselves positioned for a move lower on the $EURUSD!
Hope that gives you some insight on how we do our analysis at White Oak University!
Kevin